What is your efficiency in your recipe? I was missing way low at 70%, knocked it down to 62%, and over shot numbers a bit. Last brew I bumped it up to 64%, and was just a smidge under my numbers. I mash with about 22 liters (5.8usg), I find that any less and the mash is too thick, any more and there isn't enough room for everything. My brews are usually around 6% ABV. As I was advised in this thread, I don't start recirculating until about 15 minutes after doughing, and I stir a couple times during the mash as well.